Victorian alpine season
Snow Season Predictor
Month-by-month statistical predictions for Mt Buller and Mt Hotham, with the model inputs, previous-year backtest and source status kept in the open.
2026 season
Awaiting data
Monthly outlook
Predicted snow depth by month
Average depth
Peak depth
Good-cover odds
Average depth is the model's estimated month-average natural snow depth.
Peak depth is the highest natural snow depth expected during that month.
Good-cover odds is the chance the month reaches the resort's useful-cover threshold.
Next 14 days
Snow prediction calendar
Days highlighted in blue have a snow signal. A signal means the forecast either reports snow directly, or shows cold temperatures with enough precipitation to plausibly fall as snow.
Method
How the prediction is made
Historical facts
Season patterns
Model check
Backtest against previous seasons
MAE means mean absolute error: the average miss distance between predicted and actual monthly peak depth.
Bias shows whether the model usually predicted too high or too low.
Within 20 cm is the share of past checks where the prediction landed within 20 cm of the real peak.
Source checks